RMS upgrades more catastrophe models to HD, adds climate risk features


Catastrophe risk modelling software specialist RMS has announced a number of its core models transitioning over to High Definition (HD) versions, while also adding more functionality to help users understand the influence of climate change on perils of note to the insurance, reinsurance and ILS market.

RMS said that its Europe Windstorm, North America Winterstorm, North America Severe Convective Storm, and Terrorism models will all be available in High Definition (HD) for users shortly.

The HD models from RMS offer clients the ability to undertake deeper analysis and access more granular output, as the probabilistic models incorporate a high-fidelity, simulation-based framework for modeling event frequency and severity.

HD catastrophe risk models are seen as a significant step forward in the quality of catastrophe risk quantification, RMS believes, while the framework allows event footprints to be represented even more realistically across much larger catastrophe event sets.

For users in the insurance, reinsurance and insurance-linked securities (ILS) markets, more granular output and the ability to run model simulations across massive event sets, provides more insight into the risk analysis and underwriting process.

RMS’s new Europe Windstorm HD Model will cover 17 countries, adding Finland and Lichtenstein to the group available, while also enhancing the risk models output.

In addition, RMS’ European windstorm risk model will now also include a climate variability view, enabling users to look at results across a range of climate change scenarios.

It has also expanded the availability of European windstorm storm surge analytics to include the U.K., Ireland, France, and Belgium, while storm clustering will be modeled natively within the HD framework for the first tiem, together with an option to run the model without clustering.

Importantly, the European windstorm risk model will also cover industrial facilities, builders’ risk, and marine cargo and expands RMS’ stable of European HD models, that also includes Europe SCS HD Model, Europe Windstorm HD Model, and the Europe Flood HD Model.

Both the RMS North America Winterstorm and RMS North America Severe Convective Storm are also released in HD versions now, bringing a simulation-based framework to more accurately represent the time-dependent nature of SCS/WT event frequency and hazard, RMS said.

These new HD models also feature event clustering, seasonality, and the representation of cumulative hazard such as multi-day SCS outbreaks, or cumulative snow build-up after multiple snowfalls.

RMS’ Terrorism model, which was only launched this year, is also being made available in HD form, which will provide users increased transparency when generating exceedance probability (EP) curves, with outputs and analysis processes consistent with other RMS HD models.

The new terror model will also feature an expanded financial model, multi-region selections, property and workers compensation through a single analysis, and it also introduces selectable causes of loss, from conventional, fire only, or chemical, biological, radiological, to nuclear (CBRN).

RMS’ Terrorism HD Model will be available in 2022, while the Europe Windstorm HD Model will be available in 2023, and North America Winterstorm and North America Severe Convective Storm in 2024.

Julie Serakos, Senior Vice President, Model Production Management, RMS, commented, “The RMS High Definition Models are delivering a step-change in risk analysis across the insurance industry. All the technological capabilities within the RMS Intelligent Risk Platform™ support the RMS HD model enhancements for clients. These model announcements build on Moody’s continued commitment to bringing reliable and precise analytics to the modelers, underwriters, the C-suite, and across the industry. RMS has always invested in leading science and technology to ensure that clients have some of the best information available to help them with their risk decisions.”

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